CREATIVE SYRIA
Joshua Landis
News from Aleppo, Homs, and Hama
Friday, April 29th, 2011
I am dismayed by the analysis provided by the anonymous retired diplomat. Below is my response to his argument that only 2% are involved in the protests. By examining many youtube videos of the Syrian protesters, one will conclude the following
1. Most protesters are aged between 18-40 2. 95% of protesters are men.
For the total number of protesters, I am going to use the same estimate provided by the anonymous retired diplomat, i.e. 400,000 protesters. ·
We can safely assume that for each male protester, a female relative of the same age group (wife, sister…) stayed home yet shared the same sentiment of her male relative ( I am going to call them passive female protesters). This makes the number of protesters (active & passive) 780,000.
It's probably safe to assume that the age group (18-40) constitute 35% of the population. This brings the total number of ( Active protesters + Passive-female protesters +their extended families) to 2,250,000… ·
Given the tremendous risk of being shot dead during demonstrations. It is safe to assume that only ?% of the disgruntled population would actually go out and protest. I will estimate that only 3 out of each 10 disgruntled male citizens came out to the streets. This brings the total number of Active protesters + Passive-female protesters +their extended families+ scared-to-protest to 7,500,000.
Most protesters are sunni Muslims. Sunni Muslims are 70% of the population, this comes to be 16, 310,000. This means that 46% of sunnis are involved in the protests (active, passive, and scared)
Some people have been inflating the population of Damascus, it is only 1.64 millions. ( see tables) · Aleppo and Damascus (total of 4 millions inhabitants) have not yet participated in the demonstrations.
Population Under 15 years of age** 40%
Population over 65 years of Age** 3.30%
Popoulation between 15 & 65** 56.70%
A Syrian friend writes:
I have developed the utmost respect to the “original” Syrian opposition. People like Michel Kilo, Bassam Alkadi and a long list of others who have been imprisoned for years because they demanded reforms in Syria are now the only sane voices out there requesting calm. If the regime survives it should replace Hafez and Basel’s statues that were torn down around the country with statues for people like Kilo and AlKadi. They are investing all the credibility they have accumulated over the years to keep the country out of civil war. Watch this interview in Arabic.Aleppo: Fadi writes about why Aleppo has been quite:
I think you have to add to it that Aleppo (like Damascus) has witnessed more openness during the last few years. Aleppo benefited the most from the openness with Turkey, both economically and culturally. It was a real window for breathing. The sectarian and religious tensions that exist in places like Banias and Latakia does not exist in Aleppo. Also, Bashar personally is very much liked in Aleppo. He roams the souks when there. Over the past years he developed a habit of staying in Aleppo frequently and meets with locals. He smartly had a hands on dealing with Aleppo.
These are all personal observations.
Aleppo by Karim:
There were several small protests around Aleppo in the last 10 days. These protests were allowed to proceed by security forces without interference. However, every single time, after 15 minutes or less from startup, a group of civilians would arrive in trucks and buses outnumbering the demonstrators by around 5 times. This new group would start shouting pro regime slogans and would engage the original demonstrators brutally. The Security forces would eventually interfere taking the anti-regime demonstrators to the security stations for questioning. After 2 days or so of questioning most of them are released.
Rumors have it that these people are thugs brought up to deal with the demonstrators. No such thugs were captured so no one can confirm these rumors. Such stories are the main source of fear holding pro-reform demonstrators from gathering larger numbers.
On another note, Syrians have really outgrown sectarian ideas in the last 5-6 years. You have not been living here during this time and it is remarkable how much Syrians have become mature with regard to sectarianism. I have become very proud of the average Aleppean refusal to see things from this narrow angle. The people have grown in an impressive way.
Aleppo: Another person
Hope things are well; just wanted to say I fully concur with Karim’s recent comment on your facebook post, both regarding the small demonstrations in Aleppo and the surprisingly mature attitudes with regards to sectarianism here in the last years.
Two nights ago according to some friends there was another small demonstration right in Aziziye, a very central Christian/mixed upper middle class shopping district here in Aleppo, so not somewhere off in the ‘burbs like in Douma or Telbiseh. There again they brought in party goons in greater numbers to shout down and begin beating up demonstrators.
Aleppo continues to be calm, and there is a apparently a large pro-regime demonstration, yawm Bashar or something, being organized Friday tomorrow. People in the rest of the country are beginning to make jokes about Aleppo’s lack of action; a friend of a friend was reportedly offered by a business contact from out of town to send him diapers, since Aleppines are so scared of demonstrating; someone else reported that some Aleppines travelling to Latakia were suddenly told there was no more room at the hotel when asked where they were from.
Regardless of whether it’s factually true or not, it does say something about the perception/self-perception of the people of Aleppo in the current situation. The people we talk with remain overwhelmingly dismissive of the protest movement; my taxi driver yesterday was the first to evoke the crackdown of 1980 (2000 dead, HRW figure).
Many foreigners have now left Aleppo, as their embassies or more specifically the governmental aid organizations they work for (and that is a high proportion of the foreigners who wind up in Aleppo) order them to leave by this Friday. Some have indicated how difficult it is to uproot their entire family, pull the kids out of school and pack on three days’ notice, but they are threatened with being fired and worse if they do not comply. Needless to say it’s not all countries who are doing this; it’s sanctions before the letter on the part of some. And now the IISA International School (international in name and cost only; its academic standards and administrative practice are anything but) is taking license to simply stop functioning 2 1/2 weeks earlier this spring. Small problems compared to elsewhere in the country, of course, but just goes to show that some foreign institutions, much like parts of the media, are positively anticipating the souring of the mood here.
Louai:
‘More than 230 ruling Baath members resign in Syria’ if Syria get back in its feet soon ,and it will . those people will be regretting; reason is they are gambling that the Baath party is finishing soon however its not. This kind of people who resign and acuse the government of all the killing where more that 60 police officers and military men died whilst this ‘peaceful ‘demonstrators are demonstrating. Wouldn’t you ask your self how all those people died? who shoot at them if its only a peaceful demonstrations?
I am a member of the Baath Party and as many others I have joined the party to get some privilege (was too young that time and I thought every one is in the party whilst they are 18 any way) but the party has nothing to do with all what is happening; its the state fighting against terrorism.
George:
No question that the big cities have'nt seen more of the economic cake than the smaller towns and villages. In that sense, economics again is the main factor. Outside of aleppo and damascus it has an absolute disaster when it comes to an economic trickle down. In his opinion, Aleppo had suffered greatly during the MB uprising. The people of Aleppo went through hell during that period. They have no appetite for an encore.
Homs: From [A person from Homs]
I also talked to many of my relatives from Homs. The people I talked to are all liberal and open minded. The amount of anger in Homs against the regime is massive. Really massive. There are many low life, regime crony, Alawites in Homs that ran havoc in the city – including Bashar’s personal friend, the deposed Governor. A certified crook whose abuses have reached the ears of everyone. Yet Bashar stuck to him.
Then there is the First Lady’s family, who built for themselves another Makhloof empire.
My cousin was telling me how in Homs, and during Ramadan, you go to get a piece of paper from the Amn, and they all [being Alawites] are smoking and drinking tea , to make sure they annoy the public.
To say that the resentment for the regime in Homs is huge is an understatement. I don’t like the Islamists one bit, but I can only blame the regime for getting us here from there.
Also related to Homs and its anger: Guess what the current interior minister used to be? He was the deputy to Ghazi Kanaan in Homs [He graduated from military college in 1965 and rose to become head of intelligence for the central region. ] They both ran Homs as their own farm. Homsis have legends about their abuses during the old days when Kanaan was the head of intelligence in Homs and how the current interior minister, a certified thug and a rapist, did not spare a living soul from abuse.
And when Kanaan was given Lebanon to run [between 1982 and 2002 he headed the security and intelligence branch in Beirut], his deputy, ran amok even more. So for Bashar to appoint him as the Minister of Interior was a slap in the face. How much more stupid can the regime get? I dunno.
But I still cannot fathom the ideas of religious Homsis taking over anything. They need to be crushed. They are as criminal.
Hama
On our last evening in Hama some people warned us, right in the tourist district, to take the kids indoors and consider leaving town because a demonstration was happening near the citadel and would lead to trouble. We had actually just been at the citadel and hadn’t seen anything, so it can’t have been huge, but upon returning to the main square with the clock tower we saw several unmarked buses with guys in civil clothes and one clearly carrying a stick. I don’t think much actually happened that night, though the streets downtown were unusually empty (I moved our car into a back alley just to be safe!), but this seems to be a pattern which is being repeated in several cities. Come to think of it, the people (unusually suspicious and unfriendly) we had met in some Alawi villages around Masyaf that day had been talking in the same terms, that we should leave Hama and go back to Damascus. Maybe they already knew where they would be on duty that night…?
just to keep you updated, is my last friday here: Things are extremly calm, though today for the first time people from the old mosque in the Christian quarter (I forgot the name, it is next to the monastery) walked into the city and shouted: Brh, Bdam, Nadfik ja Deraa. I cannot verify the number, but from the shouts it could not have been much more than 40-50.
Since 4 p.m. traffic is normal in town, so there seems to be no “Hama is joining the protest”, otherwise things would have been different. Last friday we felt some tension in the city, but this friday life is back to normal, I might be wrong and missed some events, thus will try to get some more information and let you know.
Today I was really shocked by the German news which describe Syria to be in a state of complete war, with refugees, millions of demonstrators (I hate the sentence “non-confirmed information by eyewitness” or “cannot be verified”, I mean, guys, if you cannot verify information, do not publish them).
Am I living in a Syrian oasis? I really have a good time in Hama, Hama in spring is beautiful and green, people play backgammon in the parks (and at the same time AlJazeera reports protests and killings in Hama, how ridicoulous!), I do not have the feeling things are worsening at all. On the contrary, as shop owners loose income through protests (The traffic between Hama and Homs is limited and customers do not buy as before the crisis), people just want the protests to stop.
What are the ground comments you get from other towns?
رابطة العلماء السوريين حول بيان وزارة الأوقاف السورية
في رده على الاتحاد العالمي لعلماء المسلمين ونصرته للانتفاضة السورية
1- مطالب المتظاهرين السلميين في سوريا شرعية، ومساندتهم واجب شرعي على كلّ عالمٍ مسلم، أيًّا كانت جنسيته، فالقيم وواجبات الدين منظومة واحدة، والعلم رَحِم بين أهله، فلا يجوز التقوُّل على الدين وباسمه، كما لا يجوز ترديد مثل تلك الأوهام التي يعتاش عليها بعض السياسيين من قبيل تهمة “التدخل في الشؤون الداخلية”، ونربأ بعلمائنا أن يكرروا مثل تلك المقولات التي لا تتفق مع تخصصهم وما أمرهم الله به من بيان الحق والصدع به
2- ما قام به الاتحاد العالمي ورئيسه العلامة يوسف القرضاوي هو قيامٌ بالواجب الشرعيّ في نُصرة المستضعفين، وخذلان الباطل، كما أنه قيام بواجب الحق والعدل، وليس تدخلا في شأن خاصّ بقطر أو إقليم، لأن القيم الإسلامية والإنسانية لا تعترف بحدود جغرافية مصطنعة، كما أن التكليف الشرعيّ للمسلمين عامة والعلماء خاصة لا ينحصر في إطار جغرافي مهما تعددت التسميات.
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Share on Facebook “Crunch Time for the Syrian Regime” by Peter Harling
Friday, April 29th, 2011
A Friend writes:
I think they are ready for the national dialogue now. I was watching Syrian TV minutes ago and 2 MP said the following:
MP Mohammad Habash: “The era of the mukhabarat in Syria is OVER. I know that they don’t like me saying this but I don’t care”
MP Ghaboush: “I call for a national dialogue. It should start immediately”
Again this was on State TV!!
Crunch Time for the Syrian Regime
Peter Harling in Foreign Policy
Seen from Damascus, the crisis that is gripping Syria is fast approaching crunch-time. The regime appears to have stopped pretending it can offer a way out. More than ever, it portrays the confrontation as a war waged against a multifaceted foreign enemy which it blames for all casualties. This narrative, which informs the security services’ brutal response to protests, has cost the authorities the decisive battle for perceptions abroad, at home, and even in central Damascus — a rare bubble of relative calm that has now entered into a state of utter confusion.
The primary benefit of observing events from the Syrian capital is to measure just how unreliable all sources of information have become. Local media tell a tale of accusations and denials in which, incredibly, security services are the sole victims, persecuted by armed gangs. Where the regime initially acknowledged civilian martyrs and sought to differentiate between legitimate grievances and what it characterized as sedition, such efforts have come to an end.
For its part, the foreign media, denied access by the regime, relies virtually exclusively on material produced by on-the-ground protesters, the dependability of which has proven uneven. The novel phenomenon of “eye-witnesses” further blurs the picture. Outside observers have sought to counter the state-imposed blackout by recruiting correspondents, often haphazardly, flooding the country with satellite phones and modems. Several cases of false testimonies have cast doubts on such procedures but, for lack of an alternative, they largely continue to shape coverage of events.
Under the circumstances, Damascenes have but one option: to work the phones, calling relatives, friends, and colleagues throughout the country in a desperate attempt to form their own opinion. They hear and tell stories that are self-contradictory. Some tend to confirm the existence of armed agents provocateurs; many others credibly blame the regime for the bulk of the violence. Instances of sectarian polarization surface in some areas, while examples of cross-community solidarity burgeon in others. Neighbors often provide inconsistent accounts while people who share socio-economic backgrounds react to similar events in contrasting ways.
Such chaos is inherent in times of crisis, but it also is a reflection of the profound mistrust between citizens and their state, which has failed to offer any point of reference around which undecided Syrians could rally. To the contrary: the regime has systematically fostered a sense of bewilderment and anxiety. Most damaging of all has been the constant contradiction between its words and deeds.
Regime assertions notwithstanding, evidence regarding excessive use of force by security forces in circumstances that cannot plausibly be described as representing an immediate threat is piling up. Given the extraordinary deployment of forces and security lockdown in and around the capital last weekend, it is simply impossible to imagine that so-called agitators could be behind the bloodshed. Even where the regime’s responsibility in both the onset and escalation of confrontation is beyond doubt, as in the southern city of Deraa, the regime feels the need to undertake an endless “investigation” before holding anyone accountable, even as arbitrary arrests remain the norm when dealing with protesters.
On the political front, the regime has lifted the emergency law but allows security services to conduct business as usual, illustrating how irrelevant the concept of legality was in the first place. It authorizes demonstrations while stating they are no longer needed and labeling them as seditious. It speaks of reforming the media and, in the same breath, fires an oh-so-loyal editor-in-chief for straying from the official line. It insists on ignoring the most outrageous symbols of corruption. It promises a multi-party law even as it proves how little power is vested in civilian institutions. Finally, and although it has engaged in numerous bilateral talks with local representatives, it resists convening a national dialogue, which might offer a slim chance of finding an inclusive and credible way forward.
In more parts of the country than one can count, protesters now face only the most brutal, repressive side of the regime. For those who mourn the dead and know them not as saboteurs and traitors, but as relatives, neighbors, and friends, there is nothing left to discuss. Slowly but surely, these ink spots of radicalized opposition are spreading and joining in an increasingly determined and coordinated movement to topple the regime.
Many Syrians — even among those without sympathy for the regime — still resist this conclusion. Their arguments should not be ignored. They dread the breakup of a state whose institutions, including the military, are weak even by regional standards. They fear that sectarian dynamics or a hegemonic religious agenda could take hold. They suspect Syria would cave in to foreign interference. And they distrust an exiled opposition that is all too reminiscent of Iraq’s.
The regime appears to be calculating that the prospect of a bloodbath will prove the strongest argument of all. The scenario is both risky and self-defeating, for if it will be a tragedy for the Syrian people, it will also spell disaster for the regime itself. Instead, it should immediately rein in security services, take decisive action against those responsible for state violence, and initiate a genuine, all-inclusive national dialogue. This could provide an opportunity for representatives of the popular movement to emerge, for their demands to be fleshed out, and for authorities to demonstrate they have more to offer than empty words and certain doom.
Peter Harling is the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director with the International Crisis Group
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Share on Facebook “National Initiative for Change” Program of Syrian Opposition: the liberal wing
Friday, April 29th, 2011
The following is a press release from the liberal wing of the Syrian Opposition. It is notable because it does not include anyone that I know who belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood or Islamic currents of the opposition or speaks for it. Many of the animators of the movement are academics in the US – Najib Ghadbian, a political science professor, and his wife, Mouhja Kahf, a talented poet, both teach at the University of Arkansas.Ammar Kahf, probably a brother, is a grad student at UCLA.
Radwan Ziyadeh is now visiting at George Washington University and was at USIP. Ammar Abdulhamid was visiting at Brookings’ Saban Center. Khawla Yousef, another signer and activist, is his wife.
Ausama Monajed is the head of public relations at the Movement for Justice and Development in London , which has been in the news recently for getting 6 million dollars from the US.
Osama Kadi is co-founder and president of Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies SCPSS – a non-profit organization registered in Washington DC.
Their strategy is to ask the Syrian Army to turn against the president, as was the case in Egypt. This is an unlikely scenario because the Syrian Army has remained loyal to the President. The opposition has been claiming that soldiers have been shooting other soldiers for refusing to shoot on protesters. This is not convincing and seems to be the product of wishful thinking. Of course, if the revolution grows in size and force, the Sunni military officers will come under increasing social pressure to resign or defect.
The political reform plan is admirable.
Press Release
National Initiative for Change
Syrian Opposition Demand The Army to Protect Civilians and Facilitate a Transitional Period
Damascus, 29 April 2011
Background
Last Friday, 84 different cities and towns in Syria witnessed massive protests, 400 have been killed since the Syrian revolution started on March 15, with hundreds missing and thousands that have been detained. This popular uprising will lead eventually to the overthrow of the regime. It is imperative that we put an end to the arguments of Syrian exception. Our ultimate dream, as loyal
Syrian nationals, is first to witness our country become one of the best nations in the world. Given that we are witnessing profound “revolutionary” changes not seen in the Arab region since the 1950’s and that we do not want a single drop of blood to be shed by any Syrian, we aspire to learn from other experiences and apply it to our case starting from experiments of transitions to democracies in Western Europe in the 1970’s, Latin American in the 1980’s, Eastern Europe in the 1990’s and what the Arab world is experiencing today as a result of successful popular revolts overthrowing regimes that had been in power for three decades or more.
Situation Now
Syria today only faces two options; either the ruling regime leads itself in a peaceful transition towards democracy –and we are very doubtful to the desire or will of the regime to do so- or it will go through a process of popular protests that will evolve into a massive and grassroots revolution that will breakdown the regime and carry Syria through a period of transition after a wave of violence and instability. Therefore Syria is at a crossroads; the best option is for the leadership of the regime is to lead a transition to democracy that would safeguard the nation from falling into a period of violence, chaos and civil war.
Moving Ahead Syria can accomplish this goal by many means. Political reform should start with re-writing the constitution in a modern democratic fashion that guarantees basic rights to its citizens and emphasizes a system of checks and balances between branches of government. This means a complete separation of the three branches of government: judiciary, executive and legislative. This would also include a radical reform of the judicial system or institutions that have been overcome with corruption and loss of trust by the citizens. This includes the lifting of the state of emergency and all extrajudicial special, martial and field courts -especially the State Security Court-, the release of all political prisoners, the legislation of a modern law governing political parties that would ensure the participation of all Syrians with no exceptions, the reform of media laws and regulations in order to guarantee freedom of the press, the legislation of a new election law, and the forming of a national committee for truth and reconciliation to investigate Syrians who have disappeared and to compensate political prisoners. Above all comes the granting of all political rights to Kurds, the removal of all forms of systemic discrimination practices against them and the prioritizing of eastern provinces in development and infrastructure projects.
The safe transition period in Syria must be based on a firm conviction that the Syrian population completely lost faith in the executive authority, on top of it is the president, his deputies, the prime minister, and the parliament or the People’s Council that has no role in the decision making process and its members are elected with no minimum standards of credibility, transparency and integrity in addition to the election law that regulates the political process rendering it no role in the transition process.
Therefore, the only institution that has the capability to lead the transition period would be the military, and especially the current Minister of Defense General Ali Habib and the Chief of Staff General Dawud Rajha. Both individuals represent a background that Syrians can positively relate with that enables them to take a key pivotal role during the transition process by leading negotiations with civilian representatives from the leadership of the opposition or other respected individuals to form an interim government. By entering the negotiation phase that should take us on a specified timeline to accomplish the democratic transition by first drafting an interim constitution for the country that should be ratified by a national referendum. The transition government will be responsible to monitor the elections and safeguard the successful accomplishment of the transition period beginning with certifying a new constitution drafted by professional constitutional and reform specialists.
Afterwards, the interim government shall issue a new election and political party law to regulate the election process for the president and members of the parliament which is monitored by an independent national committee based on judicial as well as domestic and international observers with an open door policy welcoming the formation of political parties that will participate in the elections.
If the Syrian President does not wish to be recorded in history as a leader of this transition period, there is no alternative left for Syrians except to move forward along the same path as did the Tunisians, Egyptians and Libyans before them.
Signatories inside Syria:
150 politicians, civil society activists and human rights defenders (names are not published for personal safety reasons but will be provided to media).
Signatories outside Syria:
Yahya Mahmoud, Amer Mahdi, Najib Ghadbian, Saleh Moubarak, Ausama Monajed, Obaida Faris, Mohammed Askaf, Ammar Abdulhamid, Mohammed Zuhair Khateeb, Khawla Yousef, Abdulrahman Alhaaj, Douha Nashef, Mahmoud Alsayed Doughaim, Mouhja Kahf, Feras Kassas, Ammar Kahf, Aref Jabo, Mohyeddin Kassar, Abdulbaset Saida, Mazen Hashem, Hassan Jamali, Osama Kadi, Radwan Ziyadeh
Coordinators inside Syria:
Adnan Mahamid: +963 945 988958
Ayman Al-Aswad: +963 988 760302
Coordinators outside Syria:
Radwan Ziadeh: radwan.ziadeh@gmail.com
Ausama Monajed: ausama.monajed@gmail.com
Najib Ghadbian: ghadbian@uark.edu
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Recent Posts
News from Aleppo, Homs, and Hama
“Crunch Time for the Syrian Regime” by Peter Harling
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News Round Up (28 April 2011)
“Protesters Want Changes to Syria’s Power Structure,” Landis on NPR
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Joshua Landis
News from Aleppo, Homs, and Hama
Friday, April 29th, 2011
I am dismayed by the analysis provided by the anonymous retired diplomat. Below is my response to his argument that only 2% are involved in the protests. By examining many youtube videos of the Syrian protesters, one will conclude the following
1. Most protesters are aged between 18-40 2. 95% of protesters are men.
For the total number of protesters, I am going to use the same estimate provided by the anonymous retired diplomat, i.e. 400,000 protesters. ·
We can safely assume that for each male protester, a female relative of the same age group (wife, sister…) stayed home yet shared the same sentiment of her male relative ( I am going to call them passive female protesters). This makes the number of protesters (active & passive) 780,000.
It's probably safe to assume that the age group (18-40) constitute 35% of the population. This brings the total number of ( Active protesters + Passive-female protesters +their extended families) to 2,250,000… ·
Given the tremendous risk of being shot dead during demonstrations. It is safe to assume that only ?% of the disgruntled population would actually go out and protest. I will estimate that only 3 out of each 10 disgruntled male citizens came out to the streets. This brings the total number of Active protesters + Passive-female protesters +their extended families+ scared-to-protest to 7,500,000.
Most protesters are sunni Muslims. Sunni Muslims are 70% of the population, this comes to be 16, 310,000. This means that 46% of sunnis are involved in the protests (active, passive, and scared)
Some people have been inflating the population of Damascus, it is only 1.64 millions. ( see tables) · Aleppo and Damascus (total of 4 millions inhabitants) have not yet participated in the demonstrations.
Population Under 15 years of age** 40%
Population over 65 years of Age** 3.30%
Popoulation between 15 & 65** 56.70%
A Syrian friend writes:
I have developed the utmost respect to the “original” Syrian opposition. People like Michel Kilo, Bassam Alkadi and a long list of others who have been imprisoned for years because they demanded reforms in Syria are now the only sane voices out there requesting calm. If the regime survives it should replace Hafez and Basel’s statues that were torn down around the country with statues for people like Kilo and AlKadi. They are investing all the credibility they have accumulated over the years to keep the country out of civil war. Watch this interview in Arabic.Aleppo: Fadi writes about why Aleppo has been quite:
I think you have to add to it that Aleppo (like Damascus) has witnessed more openness during the last few years. Aleppo benefited the most from the openness with Turkey, both economically and culturally. It was a real window for breathing. The sectarian and religious tensions that exist in places like Banias and Latakia does not exist in Aleppo. Also, Bashar personally is very much liked in Aleppo. He roams the souks when there. Over the past years he developed a habit of staying in Aleppo frequently and meets with locals. He smartly had a hands on dealing with Aleppo.
These are all personal observations.
Aleppo by Karim:
There were several small protests around Aleppo in the last 10 days. These protests were allowed to proceed by security forces without interference. However, every single time, after 15 minutes or less from startup, a group of civilians would arrive in trucks and buses outnumbering the demonstrators by around 5 times. This new group would start shouting pro regime slogans and would engage the original demonstrators brutally. The Security forces would eventually interfere taking the anti-regime demonstrators to the security stations for questioning. After 2 days or so of questioning most of them are released.
Rumors have it that these people are thugs brought up to deal with the demonstrators. No such thugs were captured so no one can confirm these rumors. Such stories are the main source of fear holding pro-reform demonstrators from gathering larger numbers.
On another note, Syrians have really outgrown sectarian ideas in the last 5-6 years. You have not been living here during this time and it is remarkable how much Syrians have become mature with regard to sectarianism. I have become very proud of the average Aleppean refusal to see things from this narrow angle. The people have grown in an impressive way.
Aleppo: Another person
Hope things are well; just wanted to say I fully concur with Karim’s recent comment on your facebook post, both regarding the small demonstrations in Aleppo and the surprisingly mature attitudes with regards to sectarianism here in the last years.
Two nights ago according to some friends there was another small demonstration right in Aziziye, a very central Christian/mixed upper middle class shopping district here in Aleppo, so not somewhere off in the ‘burbs like in Douma or Telbiseh. There again they brought in party goons in greater numbers to shout down and begin beating up demonstrators.
Aleppo continues to be calm, and there is a apparently a large pro-regime demonstration, yawm Bashar or something, being organized Friday tomorrow. People in the rest of the country are beginning to make jokes about Aleppo’s lack of action; a friend of a friend was reportedly offered by a business contact from out of town to send him diapers, since Aleppines are so scared of demonstrating; someone else reported that some Aleppines travelling to Latakia were suddenly told there was no more room at the hotel when asked where they were from.
Regardless of whether it’s factually true or not, it does say something about the perception/self-perception of the people of Aleppo in the current situation. The people we talk with remain overwhelmingly dismissive of the protest movement; my taxi driver yesterday was the first to evoke the crackdown of 1980 (2000 dead, HRW figure).
Many foreigners have now left Aleppo, as their embassies or more specifically the governmental aid organizations they work for (and that is a high proportion of the foreigners who wind up in Aleppo) order them to leave by this Friday. Some have indicated how difficult it is to uproot their entire family, pull the kids out of school and pack on three days’ notice, but they are threatened with being fired and worse if they do not comply. Needless to say it’s not all countries who are doing this; it’s sanctions before the letter on the part of some. And now the IISA International School (international in name and cost only; its academic standards and administrative practice are anything but) is taking license to simply stop functioning 2 1/2 weeks earlier this spring. Small problems compared to elsewhere in the country, of course, but just goes to show that some foreign institutions, much like parts of the media, are positively anticipating the souring of the mood here.
Louai:
‘More than 230 ruling Baath members resign in Syria’ if Syria get back in its feet soon ,and it will . those people will be regretting; reason is they are gambling that the Baath party is finishing soon however its not. This kind of people who resign and acuse the government of all the killing where more that 60 police officers and military men died whilst this ‘peaceful ‘demonstrators are demonstrating. Wouldn’t you ask your self how all those people died? who shoot at them if its only a peaceful demonstrations?
I am a member of the Baath Party and as many others I have joined the party to get some privilege (was too young that time and I thought every one is in the party whilst they are 18 any way) but the party has nothing to do with all what is happening; its the state fighting against terrorism.
George:
No question that the big cities have'nt seen more of the economic cake than the smaller towns and villages. In that sense, economics again is the main factor. Outside of aleppo and damascus it has an absolute disaster when it comes to an economic trickle down. In his opinion, Aleppo had suffered greatly during the MB uprising. The people of Aleppo went through hell during that period. They have no appetite for an encore.
Homs: From [A person from Homs]
I also talked to many of my relatives from Homs. The people I talked to are all liberal and open minded. The amount of anger in Homs against the regime is massive. Really massive. There are many low life, regime crony, Alawites in Homs that ran havoc in the city – including Bashar’s personal friend, the deposed Governor. A certified crook whose abuses have reached the ears of everyone. Yet Bashar stuck to him.
Then there is the First Lady’s family, who built for themselves another Makhloof empire.
My cousin was telling me how in Homs, and during Ramadan, you go to get a piece of paper from the Amn, and they all [being Alawites] are smoking and drinking tea , to make sure they annoy the public.
To say that the resentment for the regime in Homs is huge is an understatement. I don’t like the Islamists one bit, but I can only blame the regime for getting us here from there.
Also related to Homs and its anger: Guess what the current interior minister used to be? He was the deputy to Ghazi Kanaan in Homs [He graduated from military college in 1965 and rose to become head of intelligence for the central region. ] They both ran Homs as their own farm. Homsis have legends about their abuses during the old days when Kanaan was the head of intelligence in Homs and how the current interior minister, a certified thug and a rapist, did not spare a living soul from abuse.
And when Kanaan was given Lebanon to run [between 1982 and 2002 he headed the security and intelligence branch in Beirut], his deputy, ran amok even more. So for Bashar to appoint him as the Minister of Interior was a slap in the face. How much more stupid can the regime get? I dunno.
But I still cannot fathom the ideas of religious Homsis taking over anything. They need to be crushed. They are as criminal.
Hama
On our last evening in Hama some people warned us, right in the tourist district, to take the kids indoors and consider leaving town because a demonstration was happening near the citadel and would lead to trouble. We had actually just been at the citadel and hadn’t seen anything, so it can’t have been huge, but upon returning to the main square with the clock tower we saw several unmarked buses with guys in civil clothes and one clearly carrying a stick. I don’t think much actually happened that night, though the streets downtown were unusually empty (I moved our car into a back alley just to be safe!), but this seems to be a pattern which is being repeated in several cities. Come to think of it, the people (unusually suspicious and unfriendly) we had met in some Alawi villages around Masyaf that day had been talking in the same terms, that we should leave Hama and go back to Damascus. Maybe they already knew where they would be on duty that night…?
just to keep you updated, is my last friday here: Things are extremly calm, though today for the first time people from the old mosque in the Christian quarter (I forgot the name, it is next to the monastery) walked into the city and shouted: Brh, Bdam, Nadfik ja Deraa. I cannot verify the number, but from the shouts it could not have been much more than 40-50.
Since 4 p.m. traffic is normal in town, so there seems to be no “Hama is joining the protest”, otherwise things would have been different. Last friday we felt some tension in the city, but this friday life is back to normal, I might be wrong and missed some events, thus will try to get some more information and let you know.
Today I was really shocked by the German news which describe Syria to be in a state of complete war, with refugees, millions of demonstrators (I hate the sentence “non-confirmed information by eyewitness” or “cannot be verified”, I mean, guys, if you cannot verify information, do not publish them).
Am I living in a Syrian oasis? I really have a good time in Hama, Hama in spring is beautiful and green, people play backgammon in the parks (and at the same time AlJazeera reports protests and killings in Hama, how ridicoulous!), I do not have the feeling things are worsening at all. On the contrary, as shop owners loose income through protests (The traffic between Hama and Homs is limited and customers do not buy as before the crisis), people just want the protests to stop.
What are the ground comments you get from other towns?
رابطة العلماء السوريين حول بيان وزارة الأوقاف السورية
في رده على الاتحاد العالمي لعلماء المسلمين ونصرته للانتفاضة السورية
1- مطالب المتظاهرين السلميين في سوريا شرعية، ومساندتهم واجب شرعي على كلّ عالمٍ مسلم، أيًّا كانت جنسيته، فالقيم وواجبات الدين منظومة واحدة، والعلم رَحِم بين أهله، فلا يجوز التقوُّل على الدين وباسمه، كما لا يجوز ترديد مثل تلك الأوهام التي يعتاش عليها بعض السياسيين من قبيل تهمة “التدخل في الشؤون الداخلية”، ونربأ بعلمائنا أن يكرروا مثل تلك المقولات التي لا تتفق مع تخصصهم وما أمرهم الله به من بيان الحق والصدع به
2- ما قام به الاتحاد العالمي ورئيسه العلامة يوسف القرضاوي هو قيامٌ بالواجب الشرعيّ في نُصرة المستضعفين، وخذلان الباطل، كما أنه قيام بواجب الحق والعدل، وليس تدخلا في شأن خاصّ بقطر أو إقليم، لأن القيم الإسلامية والإنسانية لا تعترف بحدود جغرافية مصطنعة، كما أن التكليف الشرعيّ للمسلمين عامة والعلماء خاصة لا ينحصر في إطار جغرافي مهما تعددت التسميات.
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Share on Facebook “Crunch Time for the Syrian Regime” by Peter Harling
Friday, April 29th, 2011
A Friend writes:
I think they are ready for the national dialogue now. I was watching Syrian TV minutes ago and 2 MP said the following:
MP Mohammad Habash: “The era of the mukhabarat in Syria is OVER. I know that they don’t like me saying this but I don’t care”
MP Ghaboush: “I call for a national dialogue. It should start immediately”
Again this was on State TV!!
Crunch Time for the Syrian Regime
Peter Harling in Foreign Policy
Seen from Damascus, the crisis that is gripping Syria is fast approaching crunch-time. The regime appears to have stopped pretending it can offer a way out. More than ever, it portrays the confrontation as a war waged against a multifaceted foreign enemy which it blames for all casualties. This narrative, which informs the security services’ brutal response to protests, has cost the authorities the decisive battle for perceptions abroad, at home, and even in central Damascus — a rare bubble of relative calm that has now entered into a state of utter confusion.
The primary benefit of observing events from the Syrian capital is to measure just how unreliable all sources of information have become. Local media tell a tale of accusations and denials in which, incredibly, security services are the sole victims, persecuted by armed gangs. Where the regime initially acknowledged civilian martyrs and sought to differentiate between legitimate grievances and what it characterized as sedition, such efforts have come to an end.
For its part, the foreign media, denied access by the regime, relies virtually exclusively on material produced by on-the-ground protesters, the dependability of which has proven uneven. The novel phenomenon of “eye-witnesses” further blurs the picture. Outside observers have sought to counter the state-imposed blackout by recruiting correspondents, often haphazardly, flooding the country with satellite phones and modems. Several cases of false testimonies have cast doubts on such procedures but, for lack of an alternative, they largely continue to shape coverage of events.
Under the circumstances, Damascenes have but one option: to work the phones, calling relatives, friends, and colleagues throughout the country in a desperate attempt to form their own opinion. They hear and tell stories that are self-contradictory. Some tend to confirm the existence of armed agents provocateurs; many others credibly blame the regime for the bulk of the violence. Instances of sectarian polarization surface in some areas, while examples of cross-community solidarity burgeon in others. Neighbors often provide inconsistent accounts while people who share socio-economic backgrounds react to similar events in contrasting ways.
Such chaos is inherent in times of crisis, but it also is a reflection of the profound mistrust between citizens and their state, which has failed to offer any point of reference around which undecided Syrians could rally. To the contrary: the regime has systematically fostered a sense of bewilderment and anxiety. Most damaging of all has been the constant contradiction between its words and deeds.
Regime assertions notwithstanding, evidence regarding excessive use of force by security forces in circumstances that cannot plausibly be described as representing an immediate threat is piling up. Given the extraordinary deployment of forces and security lockdown in and around the capital last weekend, it is simply impossible to imagine that so-called agitators could be behind the bloodshed. Even where the regime’s responsibility in both the onset and escalation of confrontation is beyond doubt, as in the southern city of Deraa, the regime feels the need to undertake an endless “investigation” before holding anyone accountable, even as arbitrary arrests remain the norm when dealing with protesters.
On the political front, the regime has lifted the emergency law but allows security services to conduct business as usual, illustrating how irrelevant the concept of legality was in the first place. It authorizes demonstrations while stating they are no longer needed and labeling them as seditious. It speaks of reforming the media and, in the same breath, fires an oh-so-loyal editor-in-chief for straying from the official line. It insists on ignoring the most outrageous symbols of corruption. It promises a multi-party law even as it proves how little power is vested in civilian institutions. Finally, and although it has engaged in numerous bilateral talks with local representatives, it resists convening a national dialogue, which might offer a slim chance of finding an inclusive and credible way forward.
In more parts of the country than one can count, protesters now face only the most brutal, repressive side of the regime. For those who mourn the dead and know them not as saboteurs and traitors, but as relatives, neighbors, and friends, there is nothing left to discuss. Slowly but surely, these ink spots of radicalized opposition are spreading and joining in an increasingly determined and coordinated movement to topple the regime.
Many Syrians — even among those without sympathy for the regime — still resist this conclusion. Their arguments should not be ignored. They dread the breakup of a state whose institutions, including the military, are weak even by regional standards. They fear that sectarian dynamics or a hegemonic religious agenda could take hold. They suspect Syria would cave in to foreign interference. And they distrust an exiled opposition that is all too reminiscent of Iraq’s.
The regime appears to be calculating that the prospect of a bloodbath will prove the strongest argument of all. The scenario is both risky and self-defeating, for if it will be a tragedy for the Syrian people, it will also spell disaster for the regime itself. Instead, it should immediately rein in security services, take decisive action against those responsible for state violence, and initiate a genuine, all-inclusive national dialogue. This could provide an opportunity for representatives of the popular movement to emerge, for their demands to be fleshed out, and for authorities to demonstrate they have more to offer than empty words and certain doom.
Peter Harling is the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director with the International Crisis Group
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Share on Facebook “National Initiative for Change” Program of Syrian Opposition: the liberal wing
Friday, April 29th, 2011
The following is a press release from the liberal wing of the Syrian Opposition. It is notable because it does not include anyone that I know who belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood or Islamic currents of the opposition or speaks for it. Many of the animators of the movement are academics in the US – Najib Ghadbian, a political science professor, and his wife, Mouhja Kahf, a talented poet, both teach at the University of Arkansas.Ammar Kahf, probably a brother, is a grad student at UCLA.
Radwan Ziyadeh is now visiting at George Washington University and was at USIP. Ammar Abdulhamid was visiting at Brookings’ Saban Center. Khawla Yousef, another signer and activist, is his wife.
Ausama Monajed is the head of public relations at the Movement for Justice and Development in London , which has been in the news recently for getting 6 million dollars from the US.
Osama Kadi is co-founder and president of Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies SCPSS – a non-profit organization registered in Washington DC.
Their strategy is to ask the Syrian Army to turn against the president, as was the case in Egypt. This is an unlikely scenario because the Syrian Army has remained loyal to the President. The opposition has been claiming that soldiers have been shooting other soldiers for refusing to shoot on protesters. This is not convincing and seems to be the product of wishful thinking. Of course, if the revolution grows in size and force, the Sunni military officers will come under increasing social pressure to resign or defect.
The political reform plan is admirable.
Press Release
National Initiative for Change
Syrian Opposition Demand The Army to Protect Civilians and Facilitate a Transitional Period
Damascus, 29 April 2011
Background
Last Friday, 84 different cities and towns in Syria witnessed massive protests, 400 have been killed since the Syrian revolution started on March 15, with hundreds missing and thousands that have been detained. This popular uprising will lead eventually to the overthrow of the regime. It is imperative that we put an end to the arguments of Syrian exception. Our ultimate dream, as loyal
Syrian nationals, is first to witness our country become one of the best nations in the world. Given that we are witnessing profound “revolutionary” changes not seen in the Arab region since the 1950’s and that we do not want a single drop of blood to be shed by any Syrian, we aspire to learn from other experiences and apply it to our case starting from experiments of transitions to democracies in Western Europe in the 1970’s, Latin American in the 1980’s, Eastern Europe in the 1990’s and what the Arab world is experiencing today as a result of successful popular revolts overthrowing regimes that had been in power for three decades or more.
Situation Now
Syria today only faces two options; either the ruling regime leads itself in a peaceful transition towards democracy –and we are very doubtful to the desire or will of the regime to do so- or it will go through a process of popular protests that will evolve into a massive and grassroots revolution that will breakdown the regime and carry Syria through a period of transition after a wave of violence and instability. Therefore Syria is at a crossroads; the best option is for the leadership of the regime is to lead a transition to democracy that would safeguard the nation from falling into a period of violence, chaos and civil war.
Moving Ahead Syria can accomplish this goal by many means. Political reform should start with re-writing the constitution in a modern democratic fashion that guarantees basic rights to its citizens and emphasizes a system of checks and balances between branches of government. This means a complete separation of the three branches of government: judiciary, executive and legislative. This would also include a radical reform of the judicial system or institutions that have been overcome with corruption and loss of trust by the citizens. This includes the lifting of the state of emergency and all extrajudicial special, martial and field courts -especially the State Security Court-, the release of all political prisoners, the legislation of a modern law governing political parties that would ensure the participation of all Syrians with no exceptions, the reform of media laws and regulations in order to guarantee freedom of the press, the legislation of a new election law, and the forming of a national committee for truth and reconciliation to investigate Syrians who have disappeared and to compensate political prisoners. Above all comes the granting of all political rights to Kurds, the removal of all forms of systemic discrimination practices against them and the prioritizing of eastern provinces in development and infrastructure projects.
The safe transition period in Syria must be based on a firm conviction that the Syrian population completely lost faith in the executive authority, on top of it is the president, his deputies, the prime minister, and the parliament or the People’s Council that has no role in the decision making process and its members are elected with no minimum standards of credibility, transparency and integrity in addition to the election law that regulates the political process rendering it no role in the transition process.
Therefore, the only institution that has the capability to lead the transition period would be the military, and especially the current Minister of Defense General Ali Habib and the Chief of Staff General Dawud Rajha. Both individuals represent a background that Syrians can positively relate with that enables them to take a key pivotal role during the transition process by leading negotiations with civilian representatives from the leadership of the opposition or other respected individuals to form an interim government. By entering the negotiation phase that should take us on a specified timeline to accomplish the democratic transition by first drafting an interim constitution for the country that should be ratified by a national referendum. The transition government will be responsible to monitor the elections and safeguard the successful accomplishment of the transition period beginning with certifying a new constitution drafted by professional constitutional and reform specialists.
Afterwards, the interim government shall issue a new election and political party law to regulate the election process for the president and members of the parliament which is monitored by an independent national committee based on judicial as well as domestic and international observers with an open door policy welcoming the formation of political parties that will participate in the elections.
If the Syrian President does not wish to be recorded in history as a leader of this transition period, there is no alternative left for Syrians except to move forward along the same path as did the Tunisians, Egyptians and Libyans before them.
Signatories inside Syria:
150 politicians, civil society activists and human rights defenders (names are not published for personal safety reasons but will be provided to media).
Signatories outside Syria:
Yahya Mahmoud, Amer Mahdi, Najib Ghadbian, Saleh Moubarak, Ausama Monajed, Obaida Faris, Mohammed Askaf, Ammar Abdulhamid, Mohammed Zuhair Khateeb, Khawla Yousef, Abdulrahman Alhaaj, Douha Nashef, Mahmoud Alsayed Doughaim, Mouhja Kahf, Feras Kassas, Ammar Kahf, Aref Jabo, Mohyeddin Kassar, Abdulbaset Saida, Mazen Hashem, Hassan Jamali, Osama Kadi, Radwan Ziyadeh
Coordinators inside Syria:
Adnan Mahamid: +963 945 988958
Ayman Al-Aswad: +963 988 760302
Coordinators outside Syria:
Radwan Ziadeh: radwan.ziadeh@gmail.com
Ausama Monajed: ausama.monajed@gmail.com
Najib Ghadbian: ghadbian@uark.edu
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Recent Posts
News from Aleppo, Homs, and Hama
“Crunch Time for the Syrian Regime” by Peter Harling
“National Initiative for Change” Program of Syrian Opposition: the liberal wing
NPR Show with Anthony Shadid, Rami Khouri, and Joshua Landis
News Round Up (28 April 2011)
“Protesters Want Changes to Syria’s Power Structure,” Landis on NPR
Advice For UN from a Retired Diplomat and for Pres. Assad from David Lesch
News Round Up (27 April 2011)
Quelling the Revolt: Will the Opposition Take up Arms?
Deraa Encircled – Major Crack Down in Regime Effort at Shock and Awe – Officers Ordered to Shoot to Kill
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ziadsoury: Luoai, I am confused now. Are you a pro-freedom anti-regime or pro-regime and his...
majedkhaldoon: Why Discuss,He said he is objective, this is a joke
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majedkhaldoon: Ziadsoury IN USA it is not against the law to treat injured person at home,Norman...
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